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Presidential Transition in the Polls

The weeks between election and inauguration usually represent a honeymoon period in which the president-elect’s decisions are given good reviews by the American people. But this year is different. The first polls on Trump’s transition have appeared, and so far, public opinion is decidedly negative. […]

2016 Election Recap

Did you know the first iPOLL question about the 2016 election appeared in 2013? It’s been a long road. […]

Understanding the 2016 Election Polls

After Trump’s stunning upset on Election Day, pollsters have been making their best efforts to understand just why the 2016 election polls missed the mark. Although the estimate of the final popular vote was not terribly inaccurate, polling in swing states showed consistent error toward Clinton, skewing expectations for election night.  While AAPOR’s committee on  the accuracy of pre-election polling will not complete their in-depth review until the spring, in the meantime there are many […]

Vote Fraud

Donald Trump has claimed that illegal voting – including voting by non-citizens or people voting under assumed identities – was responsible for Hillary Clinton’s popular vote win. Does the American public believe in large-scale vote fraud? […]

Curbed Enthusiasm: Voting in 2016

Much has been made of the supposed disenchantment of voters in the current election. In the most recent CBS News/NYT poll, only 36% of registered voters say they are enthusiastic about voting this year. But a review of polling on voter’s feelings in elections over the last two decades indicates that voter unhappiness this year may be somewhat overstated from a historical perspective. […]

Candidates and Tax Returns

Donald Trump has refused to release his tax returns, a decision that Hillary Clinton has denounced with ads that imply these documents hide secrets that would be devastating to her opponent’s campaign. Will this message resonate with voters? The polling seems to indicate that while the public does want to see returns, they may not consider the issue an important one. […]

Convention Resources

Conventional Wisdom: Delegates, Conventions and Nominations
The 2016 party conventions mark the end of a long and difficult primary season, one which has brought nomination process questions to the forefront of the national dialogue. Americans have been faced with the complexities of the roles of delegates and conventions in choosing the parties’ nominees. Such controversies have arisen in earlier elections, and the public has shown some perhaps surprising views of how the process should work.  A historical review of public opinion on the nomination process… […]

Conventional Wisdom: Delegates, Conventions and Nominations

The 2016 party conventions mark the end of a long and difficult primary season, one which has brought nomination process questions to the forefront of the national dialogue. Americans have been faced with the complexities of the roles of delegates and conventions in choosing the parties’ nominees. Such controversies have arisen in earlier elections, and the public has shown some perhaps surprising views of how the process should work. A historical review of public opinion on the nomination process: […]

The Whole World Was Watching: Public Opinion in 1968

As a divided Republican Party prepares to meet in Cleveland to confirm Donald Trump as its 2016 nominee, it is appropriate to look back at public reaction to one of the most divided US political gatherings in recent history, the Chicago Democratic convention in 1968. […]

Two Thumbs Down: 2016 Presidential Candidates’ Favorability

Are Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton the least-liked presidential candidates in recent history? There’s evidence they may be. Trump’s unfavorability ratings have been declining over the last few weeks, but the most recent Gallup poll still placed his unfavorables at 60%, with Clinton’s a lower but still dismal 54%. Other polls have found higher negatives still. Just how bad are these numbers? […]