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2014 Election Day & 2016 State Primary Exit Polls now available from National Election Poll!

Explore the newly acquired 2014 National Election Pool Election Day Exit Polls & 2016 National Election Poll State Primary Exit Polls, available at the Roper Center.
The 2014 election day collection features the 2014 national dataset as well as 27 state-level datasets. The 2016 state primary collection includes data from 55 primaries.

We would like to thank ABC News, the Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC News, as well as Edison Research, for contributing this […]

Presidential Transition in the Polls

The weeks between election and inauguration usually represent a honeymoon period in which the president-elect’s decisions are given good reviews by the American people. But this year is different. The first polls on Trump’s transition have appeared, and so far, public opinion is decidedly negative. […]

2016 Election Recap

Did you know the first iPOLL question about the 2016 election appeared in 2013? It’s been a long road. […]

Understanding the 2016 Election Polls

After Trump’s stunning upset on Election Day, pollsters have been making their best efforts to understand just why the 2016 election polls missed the mark. Although the estimate of the final popular vote was not terribly inaccurate, polling in swing states showed consistent error toward Clinton, skewing expectations for election night.  While AAPOR’s committee on  the accuracy of pre-election polling will not complete their in-depth review until the spring, in the meantime there are many […]

Vote Fraud

Donald Trump has claimed that illegal voting – including voting by non-citizens or people voting under assumed identities – was responsible for Hillary Clinton’s popular vote win. Does the American public believe in large-scale vote fraud? […]

Curbed Enthusiasm: Voting in 2016

Much has been made of the supposed disenchantment of voters in the current election. In the most recent CBS News/NYT poll, only 36% of registered voters say they are enthusiastic about voting this year. But a review of polling on voter’s feelings in elections over the last two decades indicates that voter unhappiness this year may be somewhat overstated from a historical perspective. […]

Presidential Approval: An Overview of Tools

Are midterms a referendum on the sitting president’s performance to date? How does presidential approval in Donald Trump’s first term compare to Barack Obama’s second term compared to that of George W. Bush? How about to Harry Truman? With the Roper Center’s  Presidential Approval Ratings tool, users can easily create graphs to compare approval ratings of up to three presidents across their terms. […]

None of the Above: Polling and Third-Party Candidates

Another election, another chance for a third-party campaign to draw away voters from a major party candidate and effect the election outcome. Maybe.  Some wonder if, with a divided Republican party on the right and some possible holdouts from the Sanders campaign on the left, the campaigns of Jill Stein or Gary Johnson might have more serious repercussions than those of other minor-party candidates. But the history of third-party candidate performance in polling and the returns indicates […]

Candidates and Tax Returns

Donald Trump has refused to release his tax returns, a decision that Hillary Clinton has denounced with ads that imply these documents hide secrets that would be devastating to her opponent’s campaign. Will this message resonate with voters? The polling seems to indicate that while the public does want to see returns, they may not consider the issue an important one. […]

Convention Resources

Conventional Wisdom: Delegates, Conventions and Nominations
The 2016 party conventions mark the end of a long and difficult primary season, one which has brought nomination process questions to the forefront of the national dialogue. Americans have been faced with the complexities of the roles of delegates and conventions in choosing the parties’ nominees. Such controversies have arisen in earlier elections, and the public has shown some perhaps surprising views of how the process should work.  A historical review of public opinion on the nomination process… […]