Understanding the 2016 Election Polls
After Trump’s stunning upset on Election Day, pollsters have been making their best efforts to understand just why the 2016 election polls missed the mark. Although the estimate of the final popular vote was not terribly inaccurate, polling in swing states showed consistent error toward Clinton, skewing expectations for election night. While AAPOR’s committee on the accuracy of pre-election polling will not complete their in-depth review until the spring, in the meantime there are many sources of information and analysis about just what went wrong. For those in the DC area, Roper and DCAAPOR are sponsoring a afternoon panel on Wednesday, 11/16/2016, while those near Boston can attend a NEAAPOR panel that evening. PANJAAPOR will be sponsoring a talk by Gary Langer of Langer Research Associates on 12/8/2016 in Princeton.
The following articles also offer multiple perspectives on polling in the 2016 election: